Miami's Cruise Guy on pricing 17/09/09

It was fun while it lasted, no doubt. But the days of wildly low pricing and aggressive incentive offers for cruises may be coming to an end.

That's the word from longtime industry watcher Stewart Chiron, CEO of Miami-based CruiseGuy.com. 

"Fall 2009 cruise prices are definitely higher than at the same time in 2008," Chiron says. And "pricing overall will rise" in the coming months, though "not at substantial levels."

It was almost exactly a year ago that the bottom fell out of the economy, causing bookings for cruises to dry up. The industry responded with some of its sharpest discounts ever in a bid to keep ships full, and the last year has been a golden era for cruise fans looking for deals. But with the economy showing signs of rebounding and consumer confidence rising, the trend is beginning to reverse, Chiron says.  

One segment of the market where prices already have bounced back sharply: holiday cruises.

"Don't expect seven-night Caribbean holiday sailings to start at $449 per person this year," Chiron warns. "Holiday sailings are filling quite nicely at significantly higher prices than 2008."

The New Year's sailing of Royal Caribbean's much-awaited Oasis of the Seas, notably, starts at a hefty $2,449 per person.

Still, while up from a year ago, fares for most fall and winter cruises remain well below the levels of 2005, 2006 and 2007, when the market was booming, Chiron says.

"Extraordinary deals continue to be available," he notes. "You just need to know where to look. Being flexible with your ship and sailing date usually leads to significant savings."

Where are some of the best deals for fall? Chiron points to the Mexican Riviera, where cruise lines were struggling to fill ships even before the outbreak of H1N1 influenza in the region earlier this year caused bookings to plummet. Lines have had to offer sharp discounts to keep the vessels full.

Late-season Europe cruises and repositioning cruises also remain big areas of value, he says, though there also are plenty of deals in the Caribbean. A few examples:

 -- Royal Caribbean’s Liberty of the Seas, one of the line's newest and largest vessels, is priced from $599 per person this fall for seven-night Eastern and Western Caribbean voyages out of Miami.

-- Princess' Crown Princessis priced from $499 per person for seven-night Western Caribbean voyages out of Ft Lauderdale to Grand Cayman, Roatan, Cozumel and Princess Cays. 

-- Carnival's Carnival Splendor, one of the line's newest ships, is priced from $499 per person for seven-night Mexican Riviera sailings out of Los Angeles to Puerto Vallarta, Mazatlan and Cabo San Lucas.

-- Celebrity Cruises' Mercury is priced from $1,299 for a 17-night Panama Canal cruise from San Diego to Baltimore with stops at Cabo San Lucas, Acapulco, Huatulco, Puntarenas, Cartegena and Santo Domingo. The price includes one-night in a hotel and roundtrip airfare to get to the ship from select cities.